Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases

Feasibility of High-Throughput Genome-Wide Genotyping using DNA from Stored Buccal Cell Samples

It is unclear if buccal cell samples contain sufficient human DNA with adequately sized fragments for high throughput genetic bioassays. Yet buccal cell sample collection is an attractive alternative to gathering blood samples for genetic epidemiologists engaged in large-scale genetic biomarker studies. We assessed the genotyping efficiency (GE) and genotyping concordance (GC) of buccal cell DNA samples compared to corresponding blood DNA samples, from 32 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) participants using the Illumina Infinium 660W-Quad platform. We also assessed how GE and GC accuracy varied as a function of DNA concentration using serial dilutions of buccal DNA samples. Finally we determined the nature and genomic distribution of discordant genotypes in buccal DNA samples. The mean GE of undiluted buccal cell DNA samples was high (99.32%), as was the GC between the paired buccal and blood samples (99.29%). GC between the dilutions versus the undiluted buccal DNA was also very high (greater than 97%), though both GE and GC notably declined at DNA concentrations less than 5 ng/μl. Most (greater than 95%) genotype determinations in buccal cell samples were of the “missing call” variety (as opposed to the “alternative genotype call” variety) across the spectrum of buccal DNA concentrations studied. Finally, for buccal DNA concentration above 1.7 ng/ul, discordant genotyping calls did not cluster in any particular chromosome. Buccal cell-derived DNA represents a viable alternative to blood DNA for genotyping on a high-density platform

Feasibility of High-Throughput Genome-Wide Genotyping using DNA from Stored Buccal Cell Samples

It is unclear if buccal cell samples contain sufficient human DNA with adequately sized fragments for high throughput genetic bioassays. Yet buccal cell sample collection is an attractive alternative to gathering blood samples for genetic epidemiologists engaged in large-scale genetic biomarker studies. We assessed the genotyping efficiency (GE) and genotyping concordance (GC) of buccal cell DNA samples compared to corresponding blood DNA samples, from 32 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) participants using the Illumina Infinium 660W-Quad platform. We also assessed how GE and GC accuracy varied as a function of DNA concentration using serial dilutions of buccal DNA samples. Finally we determined the nature and genomic distribution of discordant genotypes in buccal DNA samples. The mean GE of undiluted buccal cell DNA samples was high (99.32%), as was the GC between the paired buccal and blood samples (99.29%). GC between the dilutions versus the undiluted buccal DNA was also very high (>97%), though both GE and GC notably declined at DNA concentrations less than 5 ng/μl. Most (>95%) genotype determinations in buccal cell samples were of the “missing call” variety (as opposed to the “alternative genotype call” variety) across the spectrum of buccal DNA concentrations studied. Finally, for buccal DNA concentration above 1.7 ng/ul, discordant genotyping calls did not cluster in any particular chromosome. Buccal cell-derived DNA represents a viable alternative to blood DNA for genotyping on a high-density platform

Evidence of novel finescale structural variation at autism spectrum disorder candidate loci

Background: Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) represent a group of neurodevelopmental disorders characterized by a core set of social-communicative and behavioral impairments. Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) is the major inhibitory neurotransmitter in the brain, acting primarily via the GABA receptors (GABR). Multiple lines of evidence, including altered GABA and GABA receptor expression in autistic patients, indicate that the GABAergic system may be involved in the etiology of autism. Methods: As copy number variations (CNVs), particularly rare and de novo CNVs, have now been implicated in ASD risk, we examined the GABA receptors and genes in related pathways for structural variation that may be associated with autism. We further extended our candidate gene set to include 19 genes and regions that had either been directly implicated in the autism literature or were directly related (via function or ancestry) to these primary candidates. For the high resolution CNV screen we employed custom-designed 244 k comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) arrays. Collectively, our probes spanned a total of 11 Mb of GABA-related and additional candidate regions with a density of approximately one probe every 200 nucleotides, allowing a theoretical resolution for detection of CNVs of approximately 1 kb or greater on average. One hundred and sixty-eight autism cases and 149 control individuals were screened for structural variants. Prioritized CNV events were confirmed using quantitative PCR, and confirmed loci were evaluated on an additional set of 170 cases and 170 control individuals that were not included in the original discovery set. Loci that remained interesting were subsequently screened via quantitative PCR on an additional set of 755 cases and 1,809 unaffected family members. Results: Results include rare deletions in autistic individuals at JAKMIP1, NRXN1, Neuroligin4Y, OXTR, and ABAT. Common insertion/deletion polymorphisms were detected at several loci, including GABBR2 and NRXN3. Overall, statistically significant enrichment in affected vs. unaffected individuals was observed for NRXN1 deletions. Conclusions: These results provide additional support for the role of rare structural variation in ASD

Copy Number Variants in Extended Autism Spectrum Disorder Families Reveal Candidates Potentially Involved in Autism Risk

Copy number variations (CNVs) are a major cause of genetic disruption in the human genome with far more nucleotides being altered by duplications and deletions than by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). In the multifaceted etiology of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), CNVs appear to contribute significantly to our understanding of the pathogenesis of this complex disease. A unique resource of 42 extended ASD families was genotyped for over 1 million SNPs to detect CNVs that may contribute to ASD susceptibility. Each family has at least one avuncular or cousin pair with ASD. Families were then evaluated for co-segregation of CNVs in ASD patients. We identified a total of five deletions and seven duplications in eleven families that co-segregated with ASD. Two of the CNVs overlap with regions on 7p21.3 and 15q24.1 that have been previously reported in ASD individuals and two additional CNVs on 3p26.3 and 12q24.32 occur near regions associated with schizophrenia. These findings provide further evidence for the involvement of ICA1 and NXPH1 on 7p21.3 in ASD susceptibility and highlight novel ASD candidates, including CHL1, FGFBP3 and POUF41. These studies highlight the power of using extended families for gene discovery in traits with a complex etiology

Estrogen pathway polymorphisms in relation to primary open angle glaucoma: An analysis accounting for gender from the United States

Purpose Circulating estrogen levels are relevant in glaucoma phenotypic traits. We assessed the association between an estrogen metabolism single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel in relation to primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), accounting for gender. Methods: We included 3,108 POAG cases and 3,430 controls of both genders from the Glaucoma Genes and Environment (GLAUGEN) study and the National Eye Institute Glaucoma Human Genetics Collaboration (NEIGHBOR) consortium genotyped on the Illumina 660W-Quad platform. We assessed the relation between the SNP panels representative of estrogen metabolism and POAG using pathway- and gene-based approaches with the Pathway Analysis by Randomization Incorporating Structure (PARIS) software. PARIS executes a permutation algorithm to assess statistical significance relative to the pathways and genes of comparable genetic architecture. These analyses were performed using the meta-analyzed results from the GLAUGEN and NEIGHBOR data sets. We evaluated POAG overall as well as two subtypes of POAG defined as intraocular pressure (IOP) ≥22 mmHg (high-pressure glaucoma [HPG]) or IOP 0.99). Among women, gene-based analyses revealed that the catechol-O-methyltransferase gene showed strong associations with HTG (permuted gene p≤0.001) and NPG (permuted gene p=0.01). Conclusions: The estrogen SNP pathway was associated with POAG among women

The Astropy Problem

The Astropy Project (http://astropy.org) is, in its own words, "a community effort to develop a single core package for Astronomy in Python and foster interoperability between Python astronomy packages." For five years this project has been managed, written, and operated as a grassroots, self-organized, almost entirely volunteer effort while the software is used by the majority of the astronomical community. Despite this, the project has always been and remains to this day effectively unfunded. Further, contributors receive little or no formal recognition for creating and supporting what is now critical software. This paper explores the problem in detail, outlines possible solutions to correct this, and presents a few suggestions on how to address the sustainability of general purpose astronomical software

The home environment and childhood obesity in low-income households: indirect effects via sleep duration and screen time

Background Childhood obesity disproportionally affects children from low-income households. With the aim of informing interventions, this study examined pathways through which the physical and social home environment may promote childhood overweight/obesity in low-income households. Methods Data on health behaviors and the home environment were collected at home visits in low-income, urban households with either only normal weight (n = 48) or predominantly overweight/obese (n = 55) children aged 6–13 years. Research staff conducted comprehensive, in-person audits of the foods, media, and sports equipment in each household. Anthropometric measurements were collected, and children’s physical activity was assessed through accelerometry. Caregivers and children jointly reported on child sleep duration, screen time, and dietary intake of foods previously implicated in childhood obesity risk. Path analysis was used to test direct and indirect associations between the home environment and child weight status via the health behaviors assessed. Results Sleep duration was the only health behavior associated with child weight status (OR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.27, 0.77), with normal weight children sleeping 33.3 minutes/day longer on average than overweight/obese children. The best-fitting path model explained 26% of variance in child weight status, and included paths linking chaos in the home environment, lower caregiver screen time monitoring, inconsistent implementation of bedtime routines, and the presence of a television in children’s bedrooms to childhood overweight/obesity through effects on screen time and sleep duration. Conclusions This study adds to the existing literature by identifying aspects of the home environment that influence childhood weight status via indirect effects on screen time and sleep duration in children from low-income households. Pediatric weight management interventions for low-income households may be improved by targeting aspects of the physical and social home environment associated with sleep

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London